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Post at: Jul 18 2022

Global annual to decadal climate update Report

Why in news?

  • In may 2022,World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has released The global annual to decadal climate update report for the year 2022-2026.
  • The report  provides a synthesis of the global annual to decadal predictions produced by the WMO designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres.

Key findings of the report

  • In one of the next five years, there is a 50% possibility that the planet may momentarily exceed 1.5°C of warming.
  • Between 2022 and 2026, there's a 93% likelihood that at least one year will surpass 2016 as the warmest on record.
  • Since 2015, when it was close to zero, the likelihood of temporarily topping 1.5°C has slowly increased. Between 2017 and 2021, there was a 10% possibility of exceeding the target. For the years 2022-2026, that likelihood has climbed to about 50%.
  • Between 2022 and 2026, the annual mean global near-surface temperature is expected to be between 1.1 and 1.7 degrees Celsius higher than preindustrial levels (the average over the years 1850-1900).
  • The Arctic temperature anomaly, compared to the 1991-2020 average, is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.
  • There is no signal for the El Niño Southern Oscillation for December-February 2022/23, but the Southern Oscillation index is predicted to be positive in 2022.

India at the report

  • One of the primary reasons for the lowering of temperatures over India for next four year is the possible increase in rainfall activity in this decade.(As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Indian monsoon will soon enter a positive period after remaining in a negative period since 1971.)
  • The future trend suggests that the decadal mean value will be close to near normal from 2021 to 2030.
  • It will then turn positive, the decade 2031-2040 will be the beginning of a wet period.

Concerns

  • The globe is getting measurably closer to temporarily meeting the lower objective of the Paris Climate Agreement, according to the report.
  • The 1.5°C mark is most likely a marker for when climate consequences become extremely damaging to humans and, indeed, the entire planet.
  • The Paris Agreement establishes long-term targets to guide all nations in substantially reducing global greenhouse gas emissions in order to keep global warming to 2 degrees Celsius this century, while also pursuing efforts to keep it to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

  • It is an intergovernmental organization with a membership of 193 Member States and Territories.
  • India is a member of WMO.
  • It originated from the International Meteorological Organization (IMO), which was established after the 1873 Vienna International Meteorological Congress.
  • Established by the ratification of the WMO Convention on 23rd March 1950, WMO became the specialized agency of the United Nations for meteorology (weather and climate), operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences.'
  • WMO is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland.
     

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